Why logic goes out of the window in the automotive sector

It isn’t often I’d start a MotorPro article referencing a Roman Emperor. Marcus Aurelius Antoninus was big on quotations and when I was asked to comment on the prospects for the motor industry in 2024 one of his quotes came to mind. He said, “Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.”

My problem is that although in the past I would have agreed with him, today I have certain doubts.

The motor industry over the next year faces a plethora of issues many of which make no rational sense or can’t easily be addressed by normal reasoning.

For the first time in the history of the UK motor industry this year the government is aiming to fine (not just tax) a car company for not selling the mix of products that it’s prescribed. Although there is some wiggle room, each car companies’ sales portfolio should contain 22% electric vehicles with a £15k penalty for every unit sold outside this figure.

The companies that this hits hardest are firms like Toyota and Land Rover, the former being the lowest carbon emitting franchise in the UK since 2000. These are also companies that have invested heavily in the UK. The market has now been opened up for Chinese imports such as MG and BYD, companies that to date have not invested heavily in the UK.

One is left struggling to work out why this should be the right approach to secure employment and growth in GDP for the UK.

As a result, in 2024 the UK car market will be distorted by companies trying to get the ratio right by putting EVs on Motability, having them as demos and company cars for employees and restricting the supply of self-charging hybrids and ICE vehicles.

Towards the last part of 2023 EV sales started to drop off. This is hardly surprising as there is little incentive for the general public to buy EVs. In Europe and the US, the state has stepped in with some financial incentives. In the UK any general subsidies were withdrawn some time ago.

Company car tax policy means that there is demand but for many private consumers EVs are expensive with an inadequate charging infrastructure. The same government that will fine car companies for not hitting the imposed EV target has itself failed to hit their own target for getting electric charging points on motorway services.

I haven’t even mentioned the other elephant in the room – the shortage of staff able to maintain, service and repair the modern, complex, connected EV that now presents different physical risks but also the added issue of data security presented by the cellular modules embedded in these next generation vehicles.

Marcus Aurelius advocated reason, so I suppose my conclusion is that the Roman Emperor could advocate reason as he only had to deal with low tech chariots and the original form of horsepower, not something that will be on the roads this coming year.